Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
