Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
